24K99 News On Thursday (January 2) Asian morning market, the international spot gold was located at the level of 1519.50 USD / ounce. Looking at the current trading day, the price of gold has shown a consolidating pattern, and it jumped to $ 1521.27 / ounce earlier in the short-term.
(Spot gold daily chart chart provided by TradingView)
From the current point of view, gold still has strong resilience. Analysts expect that the central bank will maintain the conventional operation of buying gold in 2020, which will further boost gold demand. At the same time, given the uncertainties in the global economy and politics that will continue next year, gold will continue to be favored as a tool for hedging risks. Therefore, it is believed that the prospects for gold this year are still bright, and the bulls may achieve a greater explosion by then.
On the first trading day of the new year, due to the rising risk aversion in the market, gold's short-term acceleration accelerated, mainly because the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained "strangled". According to comprehensive media reports, the U.S. military has recently launched air strikes against armed forces supporting Iran in Iraq and Syria. In response, the Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the US military's attack on Iran's joint militia groups in Iraq and Syria, calling the attack "terrorist."
On Wednesday (January 1), according to foreign media reports, US President Trump said that the US ambassador to Iraq "has spent several hours and is safe." Iran plans to attack the US embassy in Iraq. If our personnel suffer injuries or facilities are destroyed, Iran will be fully responsible for them, and they will pay a very high price. This is not a warning, it is a threat.
U.S. Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes said that until the Chinese New Year, the gold market will continue to be boosted. From the past 10 years, the gold market usually performs well after entering January, until the Spring Festival. Usually after the Spring Festival, the price of gold will peak and fall.
According to Juan Carlos Artigas, head of investment research at the World Gold Council, the gold market is strong at the end of 2019, and strong investor demand is expected to continue to support gold prices in 2020. At the same time, the uncertainty of many industries in the global economy will continue to provide support for the gold market. The upward trend of gold prices at the end of last year shows that although the risk of economic slowdown has decreased in recent weeks, it has not completely disappeared.
Stephen Innes, strategist at AxiTrader, said that in 2020, the market is facing a risk event of the US election. The dollar will continue to weaken. Investors will choose gold instead of the dollar to hedge. Gold is expected to rise further and break through the new threshold.
Technical analysis:
USD
On the daily chart, the US dollar index maintains a downturn, the MACD green momentum column expands, and the KDJ stochastic indicator is significantly lower, indicating that the downward momentum of the US dollar is further strengthened, and it is expected to expand further downside.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index also struggled to consolidate at a low level, the MACD red kinetic energy column slightly expanded, and the KDJ stochastic index rose modestly, indicating that the US dollar may rebound slightly from the low level in the short term.
gold
On the daily chart, the gold price maintains an upward trend, the MACD red kinetic energy column remains unchanged, and the KDJ stochastic indicator is slightly lower, indicating that the gold's rising kinetic energy is temporarily suspended, and then it may consolidate at a high level for a period of time.
Looking at the 4 hour chart, the price of gold dropped slightly after the surge, the MACD green kinetic energy column slightly expanded, and the KDJ stochastic indicator was mildly lower, indicating that the short-term action capacity of gold was slightly insufficient, and then a small correction was launched.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. On Wednesday (January 1), according to foreign media reports, US President Trump said that the US ambassador to Iraq "has spent several hours and is safe." Iran plans to attack the US embassy in Iraq. If our personnel suffer injuries or facilities are destroyed, Iran will be fully responsible for them, and they will pay a very high price. This is not a warning, it is a threat.
2. On the 31st local time, Iraqi people gathered in front of the local US embassy to protest the previous air strikes by the US military. The US embassy and staff have been evacuated. Trump responded strongly on Twitter. Iran is now planning an attack on the US embassy in Iraq. They will take full responsibility.
3. On Monday (December 30), the United States announced that the Chicago manufacturing PMI for December was still below 50, but rose slightly to 48.9 from 46.3 in November.
4. On the evening of December 29 local time, the U.S. military launched an air attack on a militia group called People's Mobilization Group active in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. Department of Defense claimed that the move was a "revenge on a recent attack on a US military base in northern Iraq."
Fundamental negative factors:
1. On Monday (December 30), the US November existing home sales contract sales index increased by 1.2% month-on-month, better than the expected increase of 1.1%, and the previous value was revised from a 1.7% decline to a 1.3% decline.
2. Last Thursday (December 26), the number of US jobless claims announced on the week of December 21 dropped to 222,000, lower than the expected 224,000 and the previous value of 234,000. Comments said that the decline in initial job applicants in the latest week largely offset the increase in initial job applicants in the previous two weeks, indicating that the US job market is still strong.
3. A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce Gao Feng said on the 26th that China and the United States are in the process of performing legal review and translation proofreading of trade agreements, and are closely communicating on follow-up work such as signing the agreements.
4. US President Trump said on Tuesday (December 24) that he would sign the first phase of the China-US trade agreement reached this month.